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    MORGAN STANLEY (MS)

    Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 6, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$112.22Last close (Oct 15, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$116.88Open (Oct 16, 2024)
    Price Change
    $4.66(+4.15%)
    • Morgan Stanley expects a resurgence in IPOs and M&A activity globally, particularly with larger private companies going public, which will benefit their strong Equity Capital Markets franchise.
    • The firm is leveraging AI technology, including a partnership with OpenAI, to enhance productivity and provide advanced tools for financial advisors, positioning them for growth and efficiency gains in their Wealth Management business.
    • Morgan Stanley's global presence and investments outside the U.S. are paying off, allowing them to capture growth opportunities in Europe and Asia as activity in these markets increases.
    • Net Interest Income is expected to decline modestly in the fourth quarter, primarily due to lower rate expectations, potentially impacting revenues in the Wealth Management segment.
    • The shift towards lower-fee products in Investment Management, such as parametric strategies and fixed income, may pressure profitability over the long term due to lower fees.
    • The sustainability of operating leverage improvements is uncertain, as continued investments required for growth and infrastructure may limit further efficiency gains despite prior cost-cutting measures.
    1. Capital Allocation Priorities
      Q: How are you thinking about capital deployment amid Basel III uncertainty?
      A: We maintain a 15.1% CET1 ratio, with a buffer of 160 basis points above the new requirement of 13.5%. This buffer allows us to balance financial strength with investing in our businesses across Wealth Management, Investment Management, and the Investment Bank globally. While Basel III uncertainty may last through the election, we continue to prioritize dividends, invest opportunistically, and execute share buybacks.

    2. Net Interest Income Outlook
      Q: Is NII close to bottoming, and could it grow next year?
      A: Deposit trends are encouraging, especially since the Fed began cutting rates. While NII may be modestly down quarter-over-quarter, we're seeing positive momentum in asset growth and sweeps. Future NII growth will depend on the Fed's rate path, but we're witnessing growth in lending opportunities and client activities, which could support NII growth next year.

    3. Margin Sustainability
      Q: How sustainable are the higher incremental margins achieved?
      A: We've focused on driving efficiency with a long-term lens, examining 2- to 3-year outlooks to find efficiencies and consolidate investments. For example, occupancy costs increased only $11 million year-to-date, despite investments in space optimization and new technology. We're self-funding investments in growth areas while maintaining declines in areas like professional services.

    4. IPO Market Outlook
      Q: What's the outlook for the IPO pipeline and sponsor activity?
      A: Sponsors have $1.3 trillion of dry powder and $3–4 trillion in portfolio companies. We expect the IPO market to slowly return, with larger, mature companies going public globally. These companies will need the full-service suite of a global investment bank, and we're well-positioned to advise them.

    5. Wealth Management Growth
      Q: What's driving growth in net new assets and new clients?
      A: We've invested in technology to better match clients with financial advisors using AI and human referrals. Human referrals have doubled, surpassing 100,000 year-to-date. This approach allows new clients to experience the value of advice, supporting continued momentum in asset growth.

    6. Wealth Lending Growth
      Q: Can loan growth in wealth reaccelerate to pre-COVID levels?
      A: We believe there's significant upside in lending growth, as financial advisor penetration with lending products is increasing but still has room to grow. As rates come down, we expect increased activity in mortgages and securities-based loans.

    7. AI Initiatives with OpenAI
      Q: How is Morgan Stanley leveraging AI and the OpenAI partnership?
      A: Our partnership with OpenAI is progressing well, enhancing tools for financial advisors by using AI to access research and summarize meetings. For example, advisors can use AI to query our research portal and receive summarized insights, saving time and increasing productivity.

    8. Global Investment Banking Activity
      Q: How is international activity contributing to investment banking recovery?
      A: We're seeing strong growth outside the U.S., with revenue increases of nearly 25% in EMEA and over 30% in Asia year-over-year. Our local commitments in Europe and Asia position us to capitalize on global investment banking opportunities as markets recover.

    9. Fee-Based Asset Growth
      Q: Are fee-based asset inflows sustainable, and how might they impact fees?
      A: We continue to see assets migrating from brokerage to fee-based accounts, including in equities, fixed income, and alternatives. As we offer more products under the fee-based model, we expect durable revenue growth despite potential fee rate pressures.

    Research analysts covering MORGAN STANLEY.